Susah konsentrasi... catatan ku liburan dulu...
Eco Syariah
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Sunday, March 14, 2010
IHSG 12 Mar 2010 - Terjepit Support dan Resistance Oscillator
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Cara ngitung Risk Reward - KISS
KISS – Keep It Simply Sensible
by Trader Ed
Could you show with a suitable example involving real numbers how Risk-Reward or Profit-Loss ratios are calculated for a particular strategy. Let's say we use simple moving average crossovers as a buying/selling strategy for this example. This would be of great help to a lot of us amateurs in risk management, and thus, to ensure our accounts don't get wiped out.
One of the most interesting aspects of human nature is the reality that we humans take something simple and turn it into something complex. When we do this, we turn our ability to understand a thing upside down. For example, nutrition is a simple thing in general. The human body requires a certain amount of protein, carbohydrates, and fats to function efficiently. Granted, individual requirements vary to degrees, but, in general, the basic requirements are the same for all. Now, take the myriad conflicting nutritional studies over the years and it is clear that we have taken the simple and turned it into the complex. The result is people are so confounded that eating has turned into a job that requires specialized training.
Trading has fallen into the same trap. We need to always look at trading in the most fundamental and simple way. Basically, a trade consists of two parties negotiating to buy and sell a market. One asks for a price and the other bids a price. The two parties agree on a price or they don’t. Fundamentally, it is that simple.
The same holds true for all aspects of trading, including defining profit/loss ratios – stick to the fundamentals. There is no complexity here. The calculation is simple. Take the total amount of trading capital you have ($1000), define a percentage of that capital designated for each trade (20% = $200), and then define a risk percentage for each trade (10% = $20) and a target profit for each trade (10% = $20). Yes, it is this simple. The actual numbers and ratios are particular to each person, but the fundamental principle remains – divide your trading capital into the maximum number of trades you can profitably make without losing all of your trading capital.
In the above hypothetical, one could make five trades at $200 per trade. If one follows the rules, one can lose no more than $20 per trade, or $100 in total for the five trades. This means one has to lose 50 trades with no wins to lose all of the trading capital.
Moving averages, or any other trading approach, have nothing to do with this basic calculation. So don’t confuse the issue. Define your total capital account and then define how much you can risk against how much you can make, making sure that you can make enough trades to make profit.
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Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
by Trader Ed
Could you show with a suitable example involving real numbers how Risk-Reward or Profit-Loss ratios are calculated for a particular strategy. Let's say we use simple moving average crossovers as a buying/selling strategy for this example. This would be of great help to a lot of us amateurs in risk management, and thus, to ensure our accounts don't get wiped out.
One of the most interesting aspects of human nature is the reality that we humans take something simple and turn it into something complex. When we do this, we turn our ability to understand a thing upside down. For example, nutrition is a simple thing in general. The human body requires a certain amount of protein, carbohydrates, and fats to function efficiently. Granted, individual requirements vary to degrees, but, in general, the basic requirements are the same for all. Now, take the myriad conflicting nutritional studies over the years and it is clear that we have taken the simple and turned it into the complex. The result is people are so confounded that eating has turned into a job that requires specialized training.
Trading has fallen into the same trap. We need to always look at trading in the most fundamental and simple way. Basically, a trade consists of two parties negotiating to buy and sell a market. One asks for a price and the other bids a price. The two parties agree on a price or they don’t. Fundamentally, it is that simple.
The same holds true for all aspects of trading, including defining profit/loss ratios – stick to the fundamentals. There is no complexity here. The calculation is simple. Take the total amount of trading capital you have ($1000), define a percentage of that capital designated for each trade (20% = $200), and then define a risk percentage for each trade (10% = $20) and a target profit for each trade (10% = $20). Yes, it is this simple. The actual numbers and ratios are particular to each person, but the fundamental principle remains – divide your trading capital into the maximum number of trades you can profitably make without losing all of your trading capital.
In the above hypothetical, one could make five trades at $200 per trade. If one follows the rules, one can lose no more than $20 per trade, or $100 in total for the five trades. This means one has to lose 50 trades with no wins to lose all of the trading capital.
Moving averages, or any other trading approach, have nothing to do with this basic calculation. So don’t confuse the issue. Define your total capital account and then define how much you can risk against how much you can make, making sure that you can make enough trades to make profit.
===============
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Friday, March 12, 2010
Psikologi : Rahasia dan Kejujuran Dalam Trading / Investing
Secrets and Lies
by Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D. The promise given was a necessity of the past: the word broken is a necessity of the present…Aparna
Last week, 700 residents of a small, affluent mountain community were stunned to learn that at least 70 million dollars they had entrusted to a pillar of their community was gone. The man who seemed to have it all—a sprawling mansion, the fanciest cars, the trophy girlfriend and the most reputable business in the state--- declared personal and company bankruptcy.
The town is reeling from this, TV cameras are going house to house and many say they were “completely wiped out and don’t know what to do or where to go.” They have fallen apart and are going to pieces.
Sparing you the details, the essence of this story is that there were too many secrets lies and false promises. The more secrets you have, the sicker you are. This applies to all aspects of personal and business life. The more secrets you keep about who you really are what you are doing with your money (the last great taboo of our culture), the sicker you are.
This is nowhere more true than in trading. If you do not get right with yourself and those who believe you and believe in you, you are in sickness and stinking thinking. The most important way to begin falling apart without going to pieces is to tell the truth. If you are hiding your losses from a loved one—step up and tell that person. Don’t pretend you are a winner when you are losing. Don’t allow your pride to get in the way because pride (especially if built on a false and crumbling foundation) leads to misery, falling apart and, for some, going to pieces.
What happens when you go to pieces? Addictions, acting out behavior, depression, continued lying to self and others, and all manner of mental, physical and spiritual DIS-ease. It is only through telling the truth and being radically honest and taking personal responsibility that you find true freedom.
This is exactly what happens every day in life and in the markets. There is so much hype (es: sensational promotion), deception, misinformation and disinformation. You search desperately because you want to find the truth. But most of it is not the truth. The truth is often intolerable to bear. Denial, rationalization and the search for confirmation of your biases are much easier. No one wants to fail, but failure is a part of life. Failure is a part of trading and investing. Losing in the markets and life is often the beginning of winning. It’s OK to fall apart without falling to pieces. It’s necessary to get stopped out, to preserve capital, to embrace risk and take total personal responsibility for your thoughts and actions. Winners fall apart, but they quickly regroup. They don’t crumble and hide in the corner or lie to others about how great they are.
It’s freeing to admit that we are human beings, that we are fallible and we make mistakes. It’s OK to make mistakes. It’s not OK to lie about them and pretend they don’t exist. In time, the truth will be revealed but at this moment, hundreds of suffering people have lost trust. Trust is a commodity in very short supply today, yet it is the bedrock of any relationship. People will not trust you if you lie to them. You will never learn to trust yourself if you continue to lie to yourself. It’s a vicious cycle of denial and obfuscation that leads to self-destructive behavior and further self-sabotage.
There are many lessons for trading and living in this story. Here are a few ways to keep from going to pieces when it all falls apart:
· Always tell the truth to yourself and those you love and who love you.
· Trust, but validate and verify everything.
· Don’t trust anyone but yourself when it comes to your money.
· If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.
· Don’t assume anyone has your back. Take full and total responsibility for your actions and don’t sit around waiting for someone to bring you flowers or make money for you
· Just because something has worked in the past, don’t assume it will keep working. Linear thinking is complacent (es: self-satisfied) thinking and leads to a false sense of security and comfort.
· Don’t get greedy. Remember, bulls and bears make money—pigs (es: person with poor hygiene and low standards of tidiness) get slaughtered (es: get killed).
· Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify whenever possible.
· Everything you thought and dreamed for your future can be gone in the blink of an eye.
· Hope is not a viable strategy for trading or investing in anything.
· Stay really strong in body, mind and spirit because you never know when the tsunami is going to hit.
· Prepare for the worst and expect the best. Have a backup plan. Have three backup plans.
· When it all falls apart, you can and will survive if you don’t fall to pieces.
If you once forfeit the confidence of your fellow citizens, you can never regain their respect and esteem. It is true that you may fool all of the people some of the time; you can even fool some of the people all of the time; but you can't fool all of the people all of the time…Abraham Lincoln
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Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Macam2 Oprekan Vortext Indicator
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Hasil Explorer Oscillator 12 Mar 2010 - Daily & Weekly
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
DAILY
WEEKLY
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan Hasil Explorer ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Hasil Explorer Oscillator - 10 Maret 2010
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Hati-hati... IHSG, HSI dan DOW sama2 berada di level overbought... bahkan IHSG sudah nempel di Bollinger Band Top... bisa aja merayap naik, tapi bisa juga koreksi... amankan profit yang sudah di depan mata, jangan biarkan diambil kembali sama pasar... jangan lupa pasang trailing stop.
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan Hasil Explorer ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
IHSG 10 Maret 2010 - Besok Gimana ?
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Kalau lihat oscillator Stochastic / RSI / W%R semua berada di level OB... di samping itu juga candle berada/nempel di BolBand Top.
Hari ini IHSG mencetak highest close tahun 2010 = 2670.22... highest sebelumnya tgl 20 jan 2010 = 2667.27... selisih 2.95.
Besok gimana ya ? Waktu itu kita analisa BUMI dan sepakat masih mau naik... dan ternyata benar. Apakah analisa IHSG kali ini juga masih sepakat ?
Analisa saya: Kondisi IHSG sekarang OB vs Uptrend, sehingga kalau ada counter trend/koreksi cuma sesaat kemudian naik lagi. Dengan syarat support 2558 tidak tembus.
Disclaimer ON ya... dan mohon view ini di-fine tune lagi... maklum view pemula.
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Monday, March 8, 2010
Hasil Explorer Oscillator: Stoch+RSI+W%R+MACD plus BBand - 08 Mar 2010
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan Hasil Explorer ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Contoh Oprekan VORTEXT INDICATOR - BUMI 05 Mar 2010
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Vortex Indicator - Turunan DMI / ADX ?
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Saya baru nemu di internet bahwa ada modifikasi DMI / ADX-nya J Welles Wilder ? ... namanya VORTEX INDICATOR...
Indikator ini terlihat sangat bagus dan mudah diikuti... Populer juga karena banyak charting software yang menggunakannya, seperti:
This month’s tips include formulas and programs for:
- TRADESTATION: VORTEX INDICATOR
- eSIGNAL: VORTEX INDICATOR
- WEALTH-LAB: VORTEX INDICATOR
- AMIBROKER: VORTEX INDICATOR
- WORDEN BROTHERS STOCKFINDER: VORTEX INDICATOR
- OMNITRADER: VORTEX INDICATOR
- NEUROSHELL TRADER: VORTEX INDICATOR
- AIQ: VORTEX INDICATOR
- TRADERSSTUDIO: VORTEX INDICATOR
- STRATASEARCH: VORTEX INDICATOR
- TRADECISION: VORTEX INDICATOR
- TRADINGSOLUTIONS: VORTEX INDICATOR
- NEOTICKER: VORTEX INDICATOR
- UPDATA: VORTEX INDICATOR
- WAVE59: VORTEX INDICATOR
- TRADE NAVIGATOR: VORTEX INDICATOR
- INVESTOR/RT: VORTEX INDICATOR
- NINJATRADER: VORTEX INDICATOR
- VT TRADER: VORTEX INDICATOR
- TRACK ‘N TRADE PRO: AVERAGE DRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDEX (ADX)
- METASTOCK: VORTEX INDICATOR
- THE VORTEX INDICATOR WITH EXCEL — ARTICLE CODE
Pada link di bawah ini, anda bisa lihat contoh chart dan coding selengkapnya.
http://www.traders.com/
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah
Monday, March 1, 2010
Belajar Oscillator #6 - Dimana IHSG - HSI - DJI - 25 Feb 2010 ?
DISCLAIMER
Transaksi Hanya Saham DES dan JII
Investasikan Dunia Mu Untuk Akherat Mu
Investasikan Hidup Mu Untuk Kematian Mu
( Catatan Ku )
Dilihat dari level oscillator W%R, yang mirip lokasinya adalah DJI dan Hangseng...
Penglihatan ini dimulai sejak highestnya: DJI 2007, HSI 2007 dan IHSG 2008.
Saat ini DJI di sekitar atas level -50, dan HSI sedikit di bawah Level -50.
Sedangkan IHSG ada di level OB atau di atas level -20 dari W%R.
Jangan begitu saja percaya dengan TA Katrok ini... selalu always recek dan percaya dengan TA dan chart Anda.
Semoga bermanfaat.
Eco Syariah